Mike Rogers: Tommy, it's great to have you on the show again.

Tommy Rounds: great to be here, Mike. Excited to talk to you and your audience.

Mike Rogers: Well, here's something that I'd like to get explained. In poker, what does expected value mean in simple terms? What if the shots you missed last match weren't mistakes? They were just math. Like other senior players, when I finish a match, I immediately put myself on trial. Every error, every missed approach, every double fault becomes evidence that my game is broken. But here's the truth nobody's telling you. We're judging good decisions by bad outcomes, and it's wrecking our confidence and our results. Today, we're going to fix that.

Tommy Rounds: So, expected value is a way to look at the average outcome over the long run of some sort of action. So, if I'm in a situation and I'm playing a hand, I don't know what the cards are gonna be, I don't know how they're gonna run out. And if I look at it and I make my decisions based on whether I won the hand or not,

Mike Rogers: All right, that's a wrap on today's episode with Tommy Rounds. Let's quickly recap what we took away from this one. First, a missed shot is not automatically a bad decision. Outcomes and decision quality are two completely different things. Second, playing it safe on big points often costs you more in the long run than just playing your game. Third, you can't control whether the ball goes in.

Tommy Rounds: I might have played a hand in a certain way and the cards just came out lucky. ⁓ I might have played it well and got unlucky. But expected value is a way of looking at what are all of those possible outcomes and if I played it in a certain way, what would my average result be? So it's kind of a way to get out of that immediate results oriented thinking and kind of have a more global ⁓ long run perspective.

Mike Rogers: Welcome to Insider's Playbook. I'm Mike Rogers, and today we're bringing back Tommy Rounds, a pro poker player, former college tennis player, and coach to high level amateurs and pros. And he's got a framework from the poker table that is going to permanently change how you evaluate every point you play. So let's get into it. but you can always control whether you made the right choice. Fourth, emotional steadiness isn't something you're born with. It's what happens when you trust your process. And last, you bring what you bring into a match that day. Train it, trust it, and stop prosecuting yourself for the rest. If this episode made you think differently about how you compete, do me a favor. If you're watching on YouTube, So are you able to manage that as you're say in a tournament and you know, in the heat of the moment?

Tommy Rounds: Yes and no and it's, mean, you always have to remind yourself, but there I would be lying if there weren't situations where I was like, you know, just a robot. There's always situations where you're frustrated about what happened in that moment, but you have to kind of go back and remind yourself, okay, did I play this well and I just got unlucky? But yeah, it's a challenge for everybody.

Mike Rogers: Ha hit the like and subscribe button so we can keep growing the channel and bringing you guests like Tommy. And if you're listening on your favorite podcast platform, a quick rating and review goes a long way. Thanks again, I'm Mike Rogers and I'll see you next time on Insider's Playbook. Well, so you would focus on expected value over many hands instead of just the results of one big pot is really what you're saying.

Tommy Rounds: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, you and one of the things that happens is when people don't do that, you're just kind of at the whim of whatever happened and it might not be in your control. So I you could make a great bluff a spot that if you were in that situation 10,000 times on average, it would be amazing. It'd be a better play than not bluffing. But if that one time that you did it, somebody called and you get knocked out of a tournament or you feel kind of silly for having to show your cards. If you let that influence you, then you're not going to play in the way that is best for you in the long run. And so as a professional poker player, in any given session, you may win, you may lose. It's not really in your control to the extent it might be in another sport like tennis. So we're kind of forced to have to think that way to play the best we can, but also not drive ourselves crazy.

Mike Rogers: Well, wait a minute, I was just going say now you're giving me a good excuse so when I lose 06 06 that I don't feel so bad, but...

Tommy Rounds: Yeah. Yeah. that there's nothing wrong with that. ⁓ Sometimes stuff just happens and I think that's one of the beauties that expected value type thinking allows you to have. Like in tennis, there's a lot of people who, if you're facing a break point, for example, there might be somebody who just says, I don't care how this goes down, I am not gonna let myself miss. I just don't wanna miss that way. But that's kind of the thinking, that's the opposite of expected value thinking. It's thinking in terms of this immediate outcome, I don't want this certain thing to happen. Whereas what's gonna win me if I was in this breakpoint situation a bunch of times what's gonna make me win the most in the long run on average?

Mike Rogers: So how does chasing a single outcome hurt long-term success?

Tommy Rounds: it makes you make plays that might not be optimal. mean, like if you're in a spot and... Let's say that, again, using the bluffing example, if it's a good spot for a bluff, but you're afraid to get knocked out of a tournament, you don't want to look silly for turning up your cards, or you're bluffing against somebody that you might not be a big fan of, and you're like, I don't want to let them get one over on me. You might not do the thing that's actually the best for you in the long run. And that's really what we've got in the end.

Mike Rogers: So here's a softball question. If you bring that to tennis, you know, in your experience, how does that play out?

Tommy Rounds: I mean, I think it's fantastic if you bring it to tennis and it's the best way to do it because... I'll give you a quick example of one of the areas where you can use it first and then kind of the effects for you. But if you're thinking about where you want to serve, a lot of people will have a favorite serve or they'll have a favorite scenario that they want to do. ⁓ A lot of people might want to roll in a first serve to not ever have to hit a second serve. Some people might just love blasting serves and just hitting a first serve that goes in like 10 % of the time. But if you do it like that and you don't really think about the long term possibilities of each of those, you're going to cost yourself points and in the long run you're going to cost yourself matches. Those are those are the things that add up. So that's that's really kind of what happens. And I think the the other cost is more of a psychological cost and you're kind of always at the whim of what happened. If you lose a point you played it right. If you you know that's just what happens basically like but If I go for the line and I hit the line and I win the point, it doesn't necessarily mean that I made a good play. If I was in that situation a thousand times, would I win that point by going for the line every time? And so it can really trip you up in terms of that, but it can also psychologically trip you up in terms of always being at that whim and beating yourself up over every little point.

Mike Rogers: So how should we evaluate those decisions that we're making real time?

Tommy Rounds: Well, first step is to just sort of acknowledge it and then be willing to open up and say, hey, there are certain things that I might kind of typically like to do because of habit, or maybe they feel more comfortable. But do these things actually win for me the most in the long run? Like when it's a set point, should I just try to just roll the ball in? Should I just try to hit it the safest shot possible? Or in the long run, will I actually win more by still going for it and playing my game? But will I also have to deal with the fact that some of the time on that match point, I might make the error that might normally upset me or make me feel like I'm playing bad. But actually in the long run, it's actually better for me. It might feel great to get in those long rallies, but I'm hardly ever winning them.

Mike Rogers: So should we be judging decisions by the quality or is it more powerful to judge them by outcome?

Tommy Rounds: Absolutely the quality you always think about the quality of what you've done the outcome stuff happens And I know it might be a little bit strange to think about tennis is kind of probabilistic But it really is it's the same way as shooting a free throw You don't you know, even the best free throw shooters in the NBA There's a certain probability that they're gonna make that shot and the same thing for us in tennis outside of all the simplest shots There's a probability that we're gonna make these shots and so we don't necessarily know So the best thing that we can do is focus on the shot the decision quality Because the outcome, it might just go out and it might not be our fault. It might not be because we played it poorly. It might just go out because we're doing things that don't happen every single time and we might just be on the bad end of it that one time.

Mike Rogers: So how would you go about then building trust in your strategy when the short term results aren't really going your way?

Tommy Rounds: That's a tough one and I think that that it requires a bit of a shift. I think you kind of have to go with the mental understanding first and then you have to commit to accepting it and doing it. And I think that that's the big hurdle and that's where a lot of people get stopped because if you go into that spot and you go, know what? Normally, if it's a big point, I never let myself go for it or the opposite. Normally, if it's a big point, I'm afraid to get in a rally. So I just try to end it as quickly as possible. You're gonna have to push yourself into a place that's uncomfortable and you're going to have some results that you were trying to avoid and you're going to have that normal feeling but you're going to have to go mentally into your head and go I know that what I was doing was the right thing and my opinion is that I think the only way through it is really to kind of just accept a little bit of discomfort but It will go away. I can promise you that. It's not gonna, you're never gonna feel great if things don't go well for you. But you're not gonna beat yourself up in the way where you, ⁓ why did I do that? I should have never done that. You're gonna recognize, dang it, I wish that this wouldn't have been the time that that happened, but I made a right decision and a good play, so I'm okay with it.

Mike Rogers: You're right. So I guess that feeds right into, you know, emotional control and sticking with these decisions.

Tommy Rounds: Yeah, exactly. It's important to do that. And I think that that's one of the hidden beauties and benefits. Like a lot of times when you talk about expected value or strategy or numbers and things like that, it can feel really cold and disconnected and kind of like not what tennis and sports are about or things like that. But I think the beauty of them is that it can actually help you get to some of the psychological places that we all want to that maybe coaches talk to us about, or you hear from sports psychology when they talk about being, you know, not as outcome oriented. and being in the moment and things like that. And I think once you start to realize that some of the stuff that happens is just gonna happen just because we can't predict the future, it allows you to start kind of not being as outcome oriented. It allows you to start making an error here and there and not go, ⁓ my gosh, I'm so bad. Why is my strokes, why are they bad? It might just be because I don't execute things 100 % and that's just part of what's baked into my game right now.

Mike Rogers: So it's going back to focusing on the process.

Tommy Rounds: focused on the process and recognize that again, it's about that whether the decision was good. The outcome of it, we're not always in full control, but we can control the decision.

Mike Rogers: As long as you feel good about the decision you made, then you won the battle. So over the course of a match, how does long term thinking change shot selection and risk management?

Tommy Rounds: 100%. That one's, you know, it's gonna come down to your own individual play style. You know, if you're the person who likes to grind and you like to get balls in and stuff like that because you're worried about making errors, you may actually be winning more if you go for it little bit and opening it up and vice versa. You might be the person, like when I was a kid, I was trying to hit winners and doing all sorts of, you know, hit highlight shots even though nobody was filming.

Mike Rogers: Right.

Tommy Rounds: I would have probably done a lot better by saving that for the right moments. And so you want to make sure that you're really cognizant of that.

Mike Rogers: Sounds good. So if you had to leave senior competitors with one mindset shift about process versus results, what would that be?

Tommy Rounds: You know, don't beat yourself up over every single time the ball doesn't go in. It feels like you're always making a mistake. It feels like if we did everything right, it would always go in. But that's just not a reality in any sport. Like I mentioned with free throws, know, Steph Curry is going to miss some shots. He's going to miss some free throws. Everybody, Alcaraz, Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, they're all going to be missing some shots here and there. All of us will. And every time you do it, I would really recommend trying to get out of that mindset of, made a mistake. strokes are not good enough. It's just baked into the fact that we're hitting a ball and we're trying to hit it hard and hit it to a small spot. It's not going to go in every time and it's okay that it doesn't go in every time. And if you know that ahead of time, you can kind of get rid of that battle with yourself and just start focusing on the decisions rather than like what you feel like you're doing wrong or where you don't.

Mike Rogers: Well, and it's funny because if you think about a match after you play it and somebody says, hey, how'd the match go? Your immediate response goes to all the shots you missed.

Tommy Rounds: Absolutely, exactly. I gotta go out to the practice court. I did this wrong. I did that wrong. I blew it here. I blew it there. And some of the time, actually, in fact, I would imagine a lot of the time for most people, a lot of those shots are going out just because that's, you're bringing a certain skill level at this present moment where you're gonna execute a certain amount and you can't really expect it. You you have what you have when you get into the match. That's another thing I'll add on as well. I think a really good way to look at matches is to just kind of go in and say, I have what I have. today. You know, I had a coach for tennis, he said train it and trust it. You know, your practice is the time to practice, the match is the time to play, you have what you have, if it goes out, maybe you just ran unlucky. Maybe it was one of those times where your shot didn't go in. It doesn't mean you're bad or you did the wrong thing. That's just the skill level you bring in today. Totally okay. And you know, just play.

Mike Rogers: doesn't mean you have to take up pickleball ⁓

Tommy Rounds: Yeah,

Mike Rogers: Well, Tommy, is there anything else you'd like to add to our conversation? This has been great.

Tommy Rounds: ⁓ No, I think that's it. think that was great.

Mike Rogers: Fantastic, Tommy. It was great having you on. I'm sure some people would love to get in touch with you and find out a little more what's the best way they can do that.

Tommy Rounds: Yeah, they can contact me on my website, gamesetmatchanalytics.com through the form, or they can directly email me at tommy at gamesetmatchanalytics.com. Thanks for having me, Mike.

Mike Rogers: Fantastic. Thanks again. Good to have you on.